No need to rush new residential development

Last week, I said I would explain my feeling that the City of Verona has plenty of residential development in progress. In my mind, there are three questions to consider:

QUESTION #1: How long will it take to consume the available quantity of residential lots?

It seems that it takes between two and three years to get a new residential development ready to build houses, if the developer is hot to get it done. As long as there are three years worth of lots available, I'm not concerned about running out.

The recent draft North USA amendment application shows 525 available home sites in current open developments. This doesn't count the 117 lots that will be added by the "Zingg North" development, so the total in the pipeline is 642.

Comprehensive Plan table 2-21 suggests that approximately 96 lots are consumed in an average year. 2010 is expected to be another "down" year for new home construction in the Verona area. I'll assume that 75 lots get used in 2010 followed by 96 lots in each year thereafter.

This calculation suggests that over six years of residential lots are currently in the pipeline - well above my three year threshold for concern.

QUESTION #2: How many residential developments are open at any given time?

My feeling is that if there are at least three open developments at any given time, it'll prevent any one developer from having a "monopoly" on the new housing market. The North USA amendment application suggests that this will be the case for the next three or four years - again, not counting Zingg North. This question leaves me without any concern unless 2012 passes without new developments starting the process.

QUESTION #3: Is there - and will there continue to be - a mix of housing types available?

Simple observation around the City over the past few years suggests that there has been a mix of housing types available. One apartment complex owner successfully sued the City of a reduction in property tax liability as a result of the complex's vacancy rate. For-sale and for-rent signs are easy to find in front of condominum and duplex buildings. Buyers have sometimes had a challenge in finding the "right" single-family homes, but most of that simply involves personal preference and pricing. I don't foresee a crunch in any of these markets, based on the City's policy of including a mix of all housing types in every residential developement.

An argument could be made that the immediate Verona area lacks "higher-end" or "executive-style" single-family housing. I don't deny that argument and would welcome a development proposal that directly addresses that shortage. I wouldn't consider this to be an "urgent" situation to address, but one certainly worth looking at if the right proposal comes along.

CONCLUSION:

I feel that there is currently no urgency in getting additional residential developments through the process in the City of Verona. There is a sufficient stock of a variety of housing types, spread across enough developments, that the City should be in good shape for a few years.